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The Outlook for Immigration Policy

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The Administration has taken sweeping actions to reduce both legal and illegal entry into the US, driving sharp declines in encounters at the US border and inflows of authorized immigrants. However, labor shortages in key sectors may influence the direction of policy moving forward.

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®

  • The Administration’s actions have faced significant legal uncertainty, but courts have generally allowed many core elements of the Administration’s agenda to proceed while the challenges are adjudicated.
  • Data indicate that both legal and illegal immigration decreased in 2025. Many stakeholders have raised concerns about labor shortages in key sectors and enrollment of international students at US universities.
  • These trends may influence policy at the margins, but in response the Administration may pursue targeted changes rather than broad reforms of its approach.
  • Compliance risk and operational uncertainty will remain elevated for employers amid shifting regulatory requirements, court decisions, and changing labor force needs.
  • The direction of policy may be increasingly tied to broader economic conditions amid slowing job growth and global economic uncertainty.

Uncertain Expectations

The President made reshaping US immigration policy a core pillar of his first Administration, focusing on limiting both legal and illegal immigration. However, as the President prepared to start his second term in 2025, significant uncertainty surrounded policy the Administration would pursue and what impacts it would have on immigration flows. Analyzing the Administration’s actions since the start of President Trump’s second term provides insights into how this administration approaches immigration policy and what actions it may take in the future.

Pillars of the Administration’s Immigration Policy

On Inauguration Day in 2025, the President issued more than a dozen Executive Orders and Presidential Memoranda related to immigration, some restoring policies from his first term or rescinding Biden Administration orders and others introducing new policies.

Border Security & Enforcement

The President declared a national emergency at the southern border and directed the Defense Department to assign the US Northern Command to “seal the borders and maintain [US] sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security.” The Administration also began transporting some deportees to countries other than their countries of origin, so called “third country deportations.”

An Inauguration Day Executive Order directed DHS to expand the use of expedited removal processes for those entering the US unlawfully “to the fullest extent authorized by Congress,” which allows the individual to be removed without a hearing or other review of the determination that they should be removed. Litigation challenging this action is ongoing. The President also issued a Proclamation in March 2025 invoking the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to fast-track the deportation of individuals allegedly affiliated with the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua. Litigation regarding this use of the Alien Enemies Act is ongoing. In January 2025 the President signed the Laken Riley Act, which mandates the detention of undocumented immigrants arrested or charged with theft-related crimes, including burglary, larceny, and shoplifting or any crime that results in the death or serious bodily injury of another person.

In June 2025, the President issued an Executive Order restricting nationals from 19 countries from entering the US, echoing a similar policy pursued in the President’s first term. In January 2026, the Administration additionally suspended the approval of immigrant visas (but not other types of visas) for people from 75 countries, arguing that it aims to ensure individuals from “high-risk countries do not utilize welfare in the United States.” By some estimates, the measure will block about half of all legal immigration to the US. This latest measure is currently being challenged in the Southern District of New York.

The Administration has also launched large-scale and controversial immigration law enforcement operations in several US cities. These deployments have spawned lawsuits from a range of parties, including state and local officials, advocacy organizations, and individuals. Proposed reforms to ICE and its operations have also led to the ongoing partial government shutdown. In February, an Executive Order directed agencies to identify Federally-funded programs that may provide public benefits to unlawfully present individuals and strengthen eligibility verification. The Administration has also targeted “sanctuary cities,” which limit cooperation between local law enforcement and Federal immigration authorities. In addition, the President has sought to end birthright citizenship for those born to parents who are present in the US illegally. The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in the case April 1.

Source: Policy Backgrounder: The Outlook for Immigration Policy

Whoever has no rule over his own spirit Is like a city broken down, without walls.
Proverbs 25:28

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